Shaw Capital Management Korea: Indian’s Economy

The Indian economy will grow by 7.2% in fiscal year 2010 (April to March) as a surge in manufacturing and a rebound in services blunt the impact ofa drop in farm output. The recovery became increasingly private sectorled during the second half of the fiscal year, which bodes well for its sustainability. The government expects the Indian economy to grow by 8.5% in the next financial year that begins April 1, 2010 and to reach itsgoal of 10% annual economic growth in the coming years.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Indian’s Economy - Inflation in India has spurted in recent months, as the worst rains in nearly four decades exacerbated supply shortages. The wholesale price index rose a provisional 8.56% — higher than the 8.5%, which the Reserve Bank of India expects to be reached by the end of the year through March. As petrol and diesel prices have been raised in the last week of February, the inflation rate may rise to 9.8% by the end of March. The IMF expects the wholesale inflation rate to reach 8% by March, before easing to 5.5% in March 2011. India’s exports rose sharply in January while non-oil imports also surged.

Higher growth in non-oil imports vis-à-vis exports shows that domestic investment and consumption demand continues to be strong, outpacing rising global demand for Indian exports.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Exports in January rose 11.5% from a year earlier to $14.34 billion, after having increased 9.3% to $14.61 billion in December. Imports surged 35.5% in January to $24.70 billion while oil imports galloped 56% to $7.05 billion. The steady recovery in shipments, coupled with rising bank credit and accelerating inflation, may prompt the RBI to raise policy rates at its next review meeting in April.

The central bank had refrained from raising overnight rates at its last meeting in January but ordered banks to set aside a greater share of deposits as reserves, absorbing 360 billion rupees ($7.84 billion) from the banking system.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: The Finance Minister presented his budget on February 26th. He reduced personal taxation in middle-income households and rolled back some of the fiscal stimuli provided to industry. He increased excise taxes and brought more services under the tax net. In the world of rising concerns over sovereign debt, he projected the deficit to come down to 5.5% in FY11 from a revised 6.7% in FY10.

Markets have approved the government’s actions, as it laid out a medium term plan for fiscal consolidation, aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.8% in FY12, and to 4.1% in FY13. The deficit is 6.9% in the current fiscal year. Ratings agencies have also liked the proposed fiscal consolidation road map, but are in no hurry to change the country’s rating.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: The government borrowing — which would have crowded out credit markets this year, making it difficult for the private sector to raise capital and putting pressure on interest rates — has been contained to net borrowing of about $80bn (£52.5bn).

This figure is 20% lower than many industry figures and analysts had expected. The stock market has gained more than 3% since the budget was presented.

Shaw Receives Full Notice to Proceed on Duke Energy's Dan River Combined Cycle Plant

BATON ROUGE, La., Mar 01, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SHAW) today announced it received full notice to proceed on a new gas-fired facility at Duke Energy's Dan River Steam Station in North Carolina.

Scheduled to begin operation in late 2012, the new 620-megawatt natural gas-fired combined-cycle generating unit will replace two older units at the facility. At the peak of construction, the project will employ more than 400 workers.
"This project demonstrates Duke's commitment to providing cleaner energy and jobs for its local communities," said Clarence Ray, chief executive officer of Shaw's Power Group. "Shaw is proud to help Duke ensure an affordable, reliable and cleaner energy supply for the future."
In March 2010, Duke awarded Shaw an engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning services contract for the construction of the new facility, and Shaw began working under a limited notice to proceed.
The undisclosed value of the contract will be included in Shaw's Power segment's backlog of unfilled orders in the second quarter of fiscal year 2011.
Also as a part of Duke's long-term plan to add new generation, modernize the fleet and maintain a diverse fuel portfolio, Shaw is constructing a new 620-megawatt gas-fired unit at Duke's Buck Steam Station in North Carolina, which is scheduled for completion in late 2011. The similarities and close timing of the two projects allow for maximum use of design replication and other synergies that are resulting in significant savings to Duke Energy.
The Buck and Dan River projects will use state-of-the art environmental control technology to minimize plant emissions. These controls, combined with the retirement of the older units on the two sites, will help reduce environmental emissions of NOX and SO2 at the sites.
The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SHAW) is a leading global provider of engineering, construction, technology, fabrication, remediation and support services for clients in the energy, chemicals, environmental, infrastructure and emergency response industries. A Fortune 500 company with fiscal year 2010 annual revenues of $7 billion, Shaw has approximately 27,000 employees around the world and is the power sector industry leader according to Engineering News-Record's list of Top 500 Design Firms. For more information, please visit Shaw's website at www.shawgrp.com.
This press release contains forward-looking statements and information about our current and future prospects, operations and financial results, which are based on currently available information. Actual future results and financial performance could vary significantly from those anticipated in such statements.
Among the factors that could cause future events or transactions to differ from those we expect are those risks discussed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended August 31, 2010, our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended February 28, 2010, May 31, 2010 and November 30, 2010, and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Please read our "Risk Factors" and other cautionary statements contained in these filings. Our current expectations may not be realized as a result of, among other things:

• Changes in our clients' financial conditions, including their capital spending;
• Our ability to obtain new contracts and meet our performance obligations;
• Client contract cancellations or modifications to contract scope;
• Worsening global economic conditions;
• Changes to the regulatory environment;
• Litigation or arbitration decisions;
• Failure to achieve projected backlog.

As a result of these risks and others, actual results could vary significantly from those anticipated in this press release, and our financial condition and results of operations could be materially adversely affected. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, the occurrence of certain events or otherwise.
SOURCE: The Shaw Group Inc.
Media and Financial Contact:
The Shaw Group Inc.
Gentry Brann, 225-987-7372
gentry.brann@shawgrp.com

Freight Bill Factoring – Right or Warning for Your Business

Shaw Capital Factoring and Management of Loans Freight Bill factoring Tips - One of the most difficult aspects of managing a trucking company – especially a small trucking company – is the cash flow. Cash flow is all about how money moves through your company. Unfortunately, when you have clients that pay 30 to 60 days after you have shipped for them, the cash flow can become a little strained. This is because, even though your customers have not paid yet, you still have daily expenses: truck maintenance, pay checks to personnel, fuel costs and more. So how do you cover these expenses when you do not have the ready capital to hand? One solution can be freight bill factoring.

Freight bill factoring v. traditional loan financing

Shaw Capital Management and Factoring, Right or Warning for Your Business - If you are a small trucking company (and maybe even a medium sized or large one), you know that sometimes it can be tough to get traditional loan financing. Often, especially if you are start up, or if you are going through a rapid period of expansion, you just do not have the available credit for traditional loan financing – and you still have the need for cash.

In such cases, freight bill factoring can help you obtain the capital you need. In freight bill factoring, a financing company – called a factor – basically buys the freight bill from you and advances you the cash. Often, the factor will in turn collect from the customer, meaning that once you turn the invoice over, it is also no longer something you need to worry about.

Basics of freight bill factoring - Freight Bill Factoring – Right or Warning for Your Business

Even thought there is not the same approval process that you would have to go through with the bank, the factor will still want to make sure that payment from your customers is likely. Your customer list may be scrutinized, and those that pass muster can provide the freight bills for factoring. It is possible to set up a regular arrangement with the factor so that cash flow remains regular. Here are some of the things you need to keep in mind about freight bill factoring:

Documentation. Proper documentation will be needed when you present a freight bill for factoring. You will need an original bill of lading, as well as other documents that the factor may request.

Fees. Be aware that you will be charge a fee for the advance. This is typically between three percent and five percent of the total. The fee depends on how reliable your customers are, and sometimes can depend on how quickly they pay their invoices.

Reserve. Sometimes, a factor will hold a reserve from the advance on the invoice. In such cases, many of them will pay between 85 and 90 percent of the freight bill up front. This is the advance. The rest is held in reserve, just in case the invoice is not paid, or if other fees need to be collected. When the invoice is paid, the rest of the freight bill (minus the fee) is paid. For example, if you have a bill for $1,000, the company may only advance you $900 on the spot. (Remember, though, this is better than the $0 you be getting otherwise.) If the fee is three percent of the total, $30 would be subtracted from the remaining $100 when the customer pays the invoice, leaving you with an additional $70.

Recourse v. non-recourse. It is very important to determine whether or not the factor you are working with offers recourse or a non-recourse agreement. This is because it can make a very big difference in the rights the factor has in collecting on an invoice that is not paid. In a recourse agreement, the factor can require this article has all rights reserved and is copyright by 100 Best you to pay some or all of a freight bill if the customer does not pay. In a non-recourse factoring agreement, once freight bill is turned over to the factor, it is solely the factor’s responsibility. You are in the clear if the customer does not pay – you can keep your money (although you may not get the reserve back).

Getting your money from the factor. You need to find out how the factor will pay your advance. With freight bill factoring, the most common methods are wire transfer, ACH transfer and check. It is important to note that the funds may not be available for immediate withdrawal from your account. In same cases it may take 24 to 48 hours for the money to become available to you.

Freight bill factoring can be very beneficial to trucking companies. It allows you almost immediate access to capital, and can keep the cash flow in your company more liquid.

Shaw Capital Guide ‘Easy’ Cash Offers Teach Hard Lessons: Warning

Shaw Capital Management and Financing – Warning Advance-Fee Loan Scams: ‘Easy’ Cash Offers Teach Hard Lessons

Looking for a loan or credit card but don’t think you’ll qualify? Turned down by a bank because of your poor credit history?

You may be tempted by ads and websites that guarantee loans or credit cards, regardless of your credit history. The catch comes when you apply for the loan or credit card and find out you have to pay a fee in advance. According to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), the nation’s consumer protection agency that could be a tip-off to a rip-off. If you’re asked to pay a fee for the promise of a loan or credit card, you can count on the fact that you’re dealing with a scam artist. More than likely, you’ll get an application, or a stored value or debit card, instead of the loan or credit card.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing – Advance-Fee Loan Scams: The Signs of an Advance-Fee Loan Scam Warning

The FTC says some red flags can tip you off to scam artists’ tricks. For example:

A lender who isn’t interested in your credit history. A lender may offer loans or credit cards for many purposes — for example, so a borrower can start a business or consolidate bill payments. But one who doesn’t care about your credit record should give you cause for concern. Ads that say “Bad credit? No problem” or “We don’t care about your past. You deserve a loan” or “Get money fast” or even “No hassle — guaranteed” often indicate a scam.

Banks and other legitimate lenders generally evaluate creditworthiness and confirm the information in an application before they guarantee firm offers of credit — even to creditworthy consumers.

Fees that are not disclosed clearly or prominently. Scam lenders may say you’ve been approved for a loan, then call or email demanding a fee before you can get the money. Any up-front fee that the lender wants to collect before granting the loan is a cue to walk away, especially if you’re told it’s for “insurance,” “processing,” or just “paperwork.”

Legitimate lenders often charge application, appraisal, or credit report fees. The differences? They disclose their fees clearly and prominently; they take their fees from the amount you borrow; and the fees usually are paid to the lender or broker after the loan is approved.

It’s also a warning sign if a lender says they won’t check your credit history, yet asks for your personal information, such as your Social Security number or bank account number. They may use your information to debit your bank account to pay a fee they’re hiding.

A loan that is offered by phone. It is illegal for companies doing business in the U.S. by phone to promise you a loan and ask you to pay for it before they deliver.

A lender who uses a copy-cat or wanna-be name. Crooks give their companies names that sound like well-known or respected organizations and create websites that look slick. Some scam artists have pretended to be the Better Business Bureau or another reputable organization, and some even produce forged paperwork or pay people to pretend to be references. Always get a company’s phone number from the phone book or directory assistance, and call to check they are who they say they are. Get a physical address, too: a company that advertises a PO Box as its address is one to check out with the appropriate authorities.

A lender who is not registered in your state. Lenders and loan brokers are required to register in the states where they do business. To check registration, call your state Attorney General’s office or your state’s Department of Banking or Financial Regulation. Checking registration does not guarantee that you will be happy with a lender, but it helps weed out the crooks.
A lender who asks you to wire money or pay an individual. Don’t make a payment for a loan or credit card directly to an individual; legitimate lenders don’t ask anyone to do that. In addition, don’t use a wire transfer service or send money orders for a loan. You have little recourse if there’s a problem with a wire transaction, and legitimate lenders don’t pressure their customers to wire funds.

Finally, just because you’ve received a slick promotion, seen an ad for a loan in a prominent place in your neighborhood or in your newspaper, on television or on the Internet, or heard one on the radio, don’t assume it’s a good deal — or even legitimate. Scam artists like to operate on the premise of legitimacy by association, so it’s really important to do your homework.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing – Advance-Fee Loan Scams: Finding Low-Cost Help for Credit Problems

If you have debt problems, try to solve them with your creditors as soon as you realize you won’t be able to make your payments. If you can’t resolve the problems yourself or need help to do it, you may want to contact a credit counseling service. Nonprofit organizations in every state counsel and educate people and families on debt problems, budgeting, and using credit wisely. Often, these services are low- or no-cost. Universities, military bases, credit unions, and housing authorities also may offer low- or no-cost credit counseling programs. To learn more about dealing with debt, including how to select a credit counseling service, visit ftc.gov/credit.

Shaw Capital Management: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2

Shaw Capital Management Korea:  World wide recovery appears to have firmed up. In the UK the statistics have lagged behind the anecdotal signs of the same thing. No one still believes the ONS’s peculiar decision to call a revised GDP drop of 0.2% in the third quarter (now revised down from an initial estimate of 0.4%). The UK now have not merely surveys of purchasing managers but also employment, production and retail sales figures, all of which suggest that the economy levelled off in the third quarter and could have possibly also started expanding then, and was definitely expanding in the fourth.

Shaw Capital Management: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2 The reason seems to be that the operation of the ‘inflation tax’ is arbitrary and therefore seen as unfair—those who pay it are often the most vulnerable—e.g. with pensions invested in government bonds—while those with wealth and good advisors can usually avoid it. Ordinary taxation, however unpopular it may be, can be spread across the populace in a fair way, and so can normal ‘Treasury cuts’, which command wide respect as the only way of checking inevitable bureaucratic waste.

Since debt has been issued over a long period on the assumption of such a target, the gain to the Treasury from a burst of inflation would be large; it would act like a windfall tax on bond investors.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2 - So what each of these governments needs to do is put in place a mechanism for the medium term that first brings down the deficit and then ensures that the debt/GDP ratio falls slowly with growth. Meanwhile for some time to come there will be a need for monetary ease as the financial system is nursed back to health; this will keep the financing costs down.

The growth rate of credit to the non-bank private sector remains exceedingly low; while other sources of liquidity have increased as noted earlier, it is still clear that liquidity is not generally available on competitive terms to many small firms and ordinary households.

What has happened so far is that larger firms and wealthier households have benefited from low rates of interest while small firms and poorer households have found it difficult to gain access to finance at all. This is no basis for a modern economy to function well and recover confidently. Yet it is clear that restoring competitive finance when banks have been so damaged will take some time; there is no definite date when one can yet predict it will occur, what with the new capital required, the new procedures to be implemented, the paying-off of government to be done and so forth.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2 - So what each of Our conclusion is that quantitative easing has worked to partially offset the credit crunch and will continue to be needed as the banking system is rebuilt. Furthermore fiscal policy too will need to be supportive throughout the coming fiscal year, 2010/11—even though a process must be set in place to reduce the public deficit over the following 5 10 years.  The threat posed by the banking crisis was massive and has not gone away; and while it is premature to celebrate, the policy response has so far been effective. It needs to be continued.

Shaw Capital Awarded Contract for Proprietary Technology and Engineering for New Ethylene Plant in India

Get the latest news and learn about how Shaw capital and its management help clients go green, avoid scam, fraud and designed to help customers achieve regulatory compliance, reduce environmental impact and create long-term benefits.

BATON ROUGE, La., Dec 08, 2010 --The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SHAW) today announced it has been selected by GAIL (India) Limited (GAIL) to provide its proprietary technology and basic engineering for a new 450,000 tons per annum ethylene plant. Shaw also will provide support during detailed engineering, procurement and construction, and commissioning and startup of the plant, which will be part of GAIL's petrochemical complex in Pata, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Get the latest news and learn about how Shaw capital and its management help clients go green, avoid scam, fraud and designed to help customers achieve regulatory compliance, reduce environmental impact and create long-term benefits.
"Shaw provided technology and basic engineering for GAIL's first 400,000 tons per annum ethylene plant at Pata in the late 1990s. The performance of that plant, coupled with our ability to integrate it with the new parallel plant, will result in capital and energy savings for our customer," said Lou Pucher, president of Shaw's Energy & Chemicals Group.
The undisclosed value of the contract was included in Shaw's Energy & Chemicals segment's backlog of unfilled orders in the first quarter of fiscal year 2011.
Shaw has designed and/or built more than 120 grassroots ethylene plants worldwide. Five of those plants are in India, where Shaw also has participated in numerous projects to revamp or expand existing facilities. Shaw recently announced full commercial operation of a 1.3 million metric ton per year ethylene plant for Eastern Petrochemical Company (SHARQ) in Al-Jubail, Saudi Arabia.
The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE:SHAW) is a leading global provider of engineering, construction, technology, fabrication, remediation and support services for clients in the energy, chemicals, environmental, infrastructure and emergency response industries. A Fortune 500 company with fiscal year 2010 annual revenues of $7 billion, Shaw has approximately 27,000 employees around the world and is the power sector industry leader according to Engineering News-Record's list of Top 500 Design Firms. For more information, please visit Shaw's website at www.shawgrp.com.
This press release contains forward-looking statements and information about our current and future prospects, operations and financial results, which are based on currently available information.Actual future results and financial performance could vary significantly from those anticipated in such statements.
Among the factors that could cause future events or transactions to differ from those we expect are those risks discussed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended August 31, 2010, our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended November 30, 2009, February 28, 2010, and May 31, 2010, and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).Please read our "Risk Factors" and other cautionary statements contained in these filings.Our current expectations may not be realized as a result of, among other things:

• Changes in our clients' financial conditions, including their capital spending;
• Our ability to obtain new contracts and meet our performance obligations;
• Client contract cancellations or modifications to contract scope;
• Worsening global economic conditions;
• Changes to the regulatory environment;
• Failure to achieve projected backlog.

As a result of these risks and others, actual results could vary significantly from those anticipated in this presentation, and our financial condition and results of operations could be materially adversely affected. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, the occurrence of certain events, or otherwise.

Shaw Capital Guide to Business Loans from Family & Friends

Shaw Capital Management and Financing – The key to successful financing is structuring loans right. Avoid Debt Management Scams.

An estimated half of all small businesses depend on private investments from family and friends for startup or expansion. Shipping giant UPS was launched when 19-year-old entrepreneur Jim Casey borrowed $100 from a friend to start the company nearly 100 years ago in Seattle. And when teenager Fred DeLuca opens a sandwich shop in 1965 with a $1,000 check from a family friend, Subway (now 25,000 restaurants) was born. Friends and family is the single most important outside funding source for small business in America. But there are risks, and "F&F" money must be approached carefully.

Shaw Capital Guide to Business Loans from Family & Friends - Action Steps. The best contacts and resources to help you get it done.

Put a financing facilitator to work. Small business loans from friends and family often go awry because they haven't been properly structured and administered. Sign up a service that will prepare documents, create repayment schedules, bill, collect payments and provide year-end tax statements.

I recommend: Virgin Money (formerly CircleLending) has been a pioneer in private loan administration. The firm helps manage transactions such as small business loans between private parties — especially family and friends.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing – The key to successful financing is structuring loans right. Avoid Debt Management Scams - Offer equity in your business. If your business is a corporation or LLC, your funding source can become an equity investor, buying shares in your business.

I recommend: At Intuit's MyCorporation.com web site, you can incorporate a business or form an LLC online for as little as $149, plus state filing fees.

Put your plan in writing. Even with family and friends, you need to put a business plan and request for funding in writing. Make it as detailed, professional and realistic as you can. Aim for full disclosure of all potential risks.

I recommend: A terrific place to find help writing your plan is Bplans.com.

Arm yourself with finance facts. The better you understand the intricacies of financing, the more likely you are to succeed.

I recommend: "Financing Your Small Business: How to Borrow Money from People Your Know," is a helpful booklet produced jointly by SCORE and CircleLending.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing Guide to Business Loans from Family & Friends - Tips & Tactics. Helpful advice for making the most of this Guide. Plan your approach in advance. Think about your ideal loan and how it would work, and have those details at hand. Be yourself when you approach people for money. Don't try to suddenly come off like a big corporate executive. That's likely to be a turnoff. Don't borrow more than your friend or relative can afford to lose. Let them name the final amount. You don't have to get it all from one person. Agree on terms and formalize the agreement in writing. If it's a loan, this should specify an interest rate, repayment schedule and whether the loan is secured or not.

Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 2: Shaw Capital Management Article

Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 2: Shaw Capital Management Article - Japan’s economic recovery appears to have faltered unexpectedly sharply during the second quarter of this year. The government’s preliminary GDP statistics put the real quarter-to-quarter growth rate at 0.1%, which translates into an annualised 0.4%, marking an expansion for the third consecutive quarter.

It is well-known that Japanese GDP data are volatile and subject to drastic revisions in both directions. Nevertheless, these data suggest that the economy has slowed considerably.

Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 2: Shaw Capital Management Korea - This has raised concern that the nation’s economic recovery may come to a standstill in the latter half of the fiscal year in the midst of an evident global slowdown of recovery.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - Export growth is expected to weaken in line with the slowing of world trade and recent strength of the yen. Even the Chinese economy is slowing down. On the other hand, corporate profits have been good, but the appreciation of the yen and stagnation in the domestic market might reduce the appetite of Japanese firms for investment at home. Indeed, private machinery orders, an indicator for capital investment, have been very weak. There are increasing signs that many firms are sending more of their production offshore.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Under these circumstances, the government is reported to have started considering an additional stimulus package to deal with the appreciation of the yen, the decline in stock prices, and deflation.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan will have a talk with State Minister for National Policy Satoshi Arai, Minister of Finance Yoshihiko Noda, and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Masayuki Naoshima on the shape of a new package, which may be announced in early September, according to the press.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - Economists and observers criticized the government, and the central bank, for failing to take appropriate measures and urged them to craft bolder policies to decisively face up to the wobbly state of the economy. In particular, they emphasized the importance of preventing any further appreciation of the yen and demanded that the government and the Bank of Japan act first of all to put a brake on the yen’s rise in preparation for the growing fear of a second dip in business.

“The yen’s rise not only squeezes exporters’ profits but also, if left as it is, will encourage manufacturing companies to shift production bases outside Japan, resulting in an irrevocably adverse influence on employment and other segments.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - The Finance Ministry should not hesitate to intervene in the foreign exchange market”, said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. With the currency recently rising to a 15-year high against the US dollar, speculation has increased that Japanese authorities may act soon to slow the surging yen. BOJ officials have opposed the idea of more aggressively using their balance sheet because of worries that it could increase market concerns about Japan’s fiscal discipline and that the anti-deflation drug could prove too effective, causing prices to rise out of control. Many analysts believe that the BOJ will make a move in the foreign exchange market soon.

Shaw Capital Management: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 1 of 2

World wide recovery appears to have firmed up. In the UK the statistics have lagged behind the anecdotal signs of the same thing. No one still believes the ONS’s peculiar decision to call a revised GDP drop of 0.2% in the third quarter (now revised down from an initial estimate of 0.4%). The UK now have not merely surveys of purchasing managers but also employment, production and retail sales figures, all of which suggest that the economy levelled off in the third quarter and could have possibly also

started expanding then, and was definitely expanding in the fourth. The most troubling aspect of the recovery in western economies including the UK is the lack of credit growth to the non-bank private sector. However, this has been accompanied by a general easing in monetary conditions, as

measured by other indicators, such as rates of interest on corporate loans and bonds, and the cost of equity capital.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - So it appears that the policy easing carried out by virtually all western central banks has succeeded in offsetting at least much of the effects of the credit crunch created by the banking crisis.

Another feature has been the willingness of western governments to allow their budget balances to move into heavy deficit.

The way to think of this is that governments will eventually have to pay off these deficits by either cutting spending services to the private sector or raising taxes on it. Hence these deficits are loans to the private sector to perform current services or avoid collecting current taxes; these loans will be paid off in the future. The government is effectively giving credit to the private sector that has dried up through the usual channels.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - Some people would like to debate whether such government deficits are effective in supporting the economy; however it should be obvious that in a credit crunch all credit provision is likely to be effective in offsetting the credit shortage. One can agree that in normal times deficit multipliers could well be low because rational consumers will work out that they must pay future taxes to pay for the deficits and hence they may well save in response, so offsetting the direct deficit stimulus.

However in a credit crunch this argument is irrelevant because the private sector is liquidity-constrained. So monetary and fiscal policy have both been dominated by the need to provide a substitute for bank credit. They have done so and been rather effective in this.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - As long as the recovery does not raise inflation and require interest rates to rise, and money creation to be stopped and reversed, the government deficits have been costless because financed by money creation at zero interest rate therefore.

The burning question is when is the turning point, when ‘monetary exit’ must be started, turning these deficits into expensive processes that could violate sustainability conditions, and hence precipitating the necessity of fiscal exit also.

From the UK or US perspective there is no real reason to rush to the exit.  Both countries’ public debt/GDP ratios are quite low, in the region of 50 80% respectively. There is no history of outright default, or of refusal to pay taxes. The main issue concerns the possibility of using inflation as a partial default tool.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - In the UK there has been a formal inflation target of 2% or so for 17 years; in the US there is no formal target but a widespread assumption encouraged by the Fed that there effectively is one of the same order. Since debt has been issued over a long period on the assumption of such a target, the gain to the Treasury from a burst of inflation would be large; it would act like a windfall tax on bond investors.

For example to reduce the debt/GDP ratio in the UK back to 40% from its current level of 56% would just require four years of inflation at 6%, only 4% over the target.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - Tempting as this might sound, it is striking how little public interest there is in it. Inflation was highly unpopular in both countries when it was out of control in the 1970s and early 1980s; inflation targeting has proved politically successful for this reason.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article

Shaw Capital Management Korea News Release - We have seen major developing economies like China and India apply the brakes earlier this year, as inflation grew on the back of commodity shortages. World growth was running at 4.5%, only 1% or so below the record growth rates of the mid-2000s. This was too fast for raw material supplies to accommodate with current technology.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article  - World productivity growth has been slowed down by this raw material shortage … this in our view was the cause of the sharp slowdown in 2006 which in its turn caused the collapse of demand for houses in the US and so the sub-prime crisis.

It will take a decade for new technology and possibly new supplies to allow renewed productivity growth; with plentiful supplies of raw materials this was the era of computer-led growth in productivity.

As growth has been slowed worldwide, so already slow growth in developed countries has slowed even further. This is inevitable.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article - If these countries were to speed up, demand for commodities would rise faster, spurring sharp price rises, which in turn would force them to slow back down.

It is convenient to focus on shortage of credit and excess debt post-banking crisis. But the fundamentals would not permit much growth even if there were plenty of credit and no debt; if the latter situation were the case, then monetary policy would need to tighten. As it is monetary policy can remain easy with the banks in endless disarray.

Seen against this background, the slowdown is natural and should not surprise us. Equally natural is that equity markets are settling, while bond yields fall, with inflation being held down and return on capital depressed by slow productivity growth.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: However, none of this implies a return to recession in OECD countries. This would be prevented by a return to quantitative easing and even a deferral of fiscal tightening. Governments and central banks in the OECD are under no pressure from inflation to force down activity. Debt/GDP ratios are rising and this is forcing fiscal tightening. But the pace of this is a matter of choice.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: “As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation”

Furthermore there are investment opportunities in the present environment: high returns to technological advance in commodity use, for example, and to exploration for new sources of supply.

Exports are growing well, as capital goods flow to the fast-growing developing world. Consumption is no longer depressed but rather beginning to grow.

As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation, despite all the ways in which firms and individuals have managed to find alternative finance sources since the banking crisis.

This points to further quantitative easing. Interest rate policy has become irrelevant; the rates at which private loans are being made bear little relation any more to the rates of interest on government short-term loans.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Newsletter - The very low rates central banks are charging banks for loans are merely a subsidy to banks; better instead to release banks from the neurotic demands currently being made by regulators for much more capital, for greater caution in loan-making and so on.

Meanwhile it is time to restore official interest rates to their proper function as regulators of the private rate of interest; they should now be raised towards more normal rates.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1

Japan’s economic recovery appears to have faltered unexpectedly sharply during the second quarter of this year. The government’s preliminary GDP statistics put the real quarter-to-quarter growth rate at 0.1%, which translates into an annualised 0.4%, marking an expansion for the third consecutive quarter.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - This represents, however, a striking slowdown from the 0.4% quarterly growth, or annualised 4.4% growth, recorded in the preceding three months. It also fell far short of the median forecast of private-sector economists of annualised 2.3% growth over the preceding period.

Moreover, in nominal terms Japanese GDP has fallen behind China’s: US$1,336.9 billion for China against US$1,288.3 billion for Japan for the quarter.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - Looking at individual demand components, the domestic economy was sluggish, with the exception of private capital expenditure. Private non-residential investment grew by 0.5%, almost the same as in the previous quarter, on the back of improved profits. However, private residential and government investment spending declined sharply by 1.3% and 3.4%, respectively.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - The contribution of inventories to GDP growth declined by 0.2 points. This is a bit surprising given the acceleration in imports, and might indicate that there is still room for an upward revision of growth at the next release.

Officials were particularly disturbed by the slowdown of personal consumption. Although the growth in consumer spending had been shored up by the government subsidies, such as those for the purchase of energy-efficient cars and the eco-point incentive program for purchasers of eco-friendly home electric appliances, the effects of these policies apparently wore off during the quarter.

The eco-car subsidies and eco-point system are due to end by the end of September and the end of this year respectively. Meanwhile, even though major corporations are awash with cash, they are extremely cautious about capital investment in view of uncertainties about the domestic and overseas economic situation.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - Exports, the prime driver of growth, rose 5.9% on strong demand from Europe. But the pace of growth slowed from a 7.0% rise in the previous quarter amid signs of an economic slowdown in China, one of the biggest destinations for Japanese exports.

It is well-known that Japanese GDP data are volatile and subject to drastic revisions in both directions. Nevertheless, these data suggest that the economy has slowed considerably.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - This has raised concern that the nation’s economic recovery may come to a standstill in the latter half of the fiscal year in the midst of an evident global slowdown of recovery.

We provide the information; insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. For more information on the issues in this newsletter, or for any further information, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - We have seen major developing economies like China and India apply the brakes earlier this year, as inflation grew on the back of commodity shortages.

World growth was running at 4.5%, only 1% or so below the record growth rates of the mid-2000s. This was too fast for raw material supplies to accommodate with current technology.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: - World productivity growth has been slowed down by this raw material shortage … this in our view was the cause of the sharp slowdown in 2006 which in its turn caused the collapse of demand for houses in the US and so the sub-prime crisis.

It will take a decade for new technology and possibly new supplies to allow renewed productivity growth; with plentiful supplies of raw materials this was the era of computer-led growth in productivity.

As growth has been slowed worldwide, so already slow growth in developed countries has slowed even further. This is inevitable.

If these countries were to speed up, demand for commodities would rise faster, spurring sharp price rises, which in turn would force them to slow back down.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: - It is convenient to focus on shortage of credit and excess debt post-banking crisis. But the fundamentals would not permit much growth even if there were plenty of credit and no debt; if the latter situation were the case, then monetary policy would need to tighten. As it is monetary policy can remain easy with the banks in endless disarray.

Seen against this background, the slowdown is natural and should not surprise us. Equally natural is that equity markets are settling, while bond yields fall, with inflation being held down and return on capital depressed by slow productivity growth.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - However, none of this implies a return to recession in OECD countries. This would be prevented by a return to quantitative easing and even a deferral of fiscal tightening. Governments and central banks in the OECD are under no pressure from inflation to force down activity. Debt/GDP ratios are rising and this is forcing fiscal tightening. But the pace of this is a matter of choice.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - “As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation”

Furthermore there are investment opportunities in the present environment: high returns to technological advance in commodity use, for example, and to exploration for new sources of supply.

Exports are growing well, as capital goods flow to the fast-growing developing world. Consumption is no longer depressed but rather beginning to grow.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation, despite all the ways in which firms and individuals have managed to find alternative finance sources since the banking crisis.

This points to further quantitative easing. Interest rate policy has become irrelevant; the rates at which private loans are being made bear little relation any more to the rates of interest on government short-term loans.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: The very low rates central banks are charging banks for loans are merely a subsidy to banks; better instead to release banks from the neurotic demands currently being made by regulators for much more capital, for greater caution in loan-making and so on.

Meanwhile it is time to restore official interest rates to their proper function as regulators of the private rate of interest; they should now be raised towards more normal rates.